Week 29, 2014
Tea market report 14-18 July, 2014
The auction pattern continues erratic with more volatility apparent. Mombasa saw a further improvement in demand with some of the highest price rises in a single auction we have seen for some time. There was no sale in Limbe and that centre is now heading towards the fortnightly auction pattern. Colombo had a very strong sale with all tea gaining whilst Jakarta showed a little more backbone. In North India, good tea continued to attract attention but the medium and plainer types fell away and the out-take was much higher. The auction centres in South India remain lacklustre.
The weather seasonally normal in most origins. The weather upcountry in Kenya is much cooler and any light showers are becoming more sporadic so crop intakes are falling and crop will continue to ebb. Malawi is hot by day, cool at night and leaf intake, whilst limited, is still enough to keep some factories ticking over. Sri Lanka is showery and Indonesia is turning drier. Monsoon rain in North India continues and crop outturn is in abundance whilst China/Vietnam are in full swing. Again, broad view, growing and cropping conditions globally are normal for the time of year and we have hit the halfway mark without any significant deficit.
We see less and less downside imperative as prices in some origins, most notably Kenya, are still quite attractive and supply in Africa is tightening slightly. There looks to be some limited downside ahead in North India as quality will decline in the coming weeks and offerings are high. Having said this, the upside also looks capped as current offerings are still quite healthy. We expect a good measure of volatility in the coming months.
We like this:
“Everyone has a photographic memory. Some just don’t have film.”