Week 9, 2015
Tea market report 23–27 February, 2015
In trading tea it is interesting to learn from other markets. This week we’ve seen crude oil prices moving downwards and upwards suddenly based on news from the US. Downwards on news about stocks in the US and upwards on quotes of the Saudi Arabian minister of oil, Mr. Ali Al-Naimi. It is remarkable that the downwards movement was based on news about fundamentals, the upward movement was based on a quote with the aim to talk the market upwards, not based on any facts or numbers.
With the declining forthcoming auction quantities we’ve seen changing the Mombasa auction from a bear market to a bull market. BP1s shot up this week with some lots trading 40-60cts higher than last week. PF1’s joined the BP1s initially but traded irregular or even eased slightly towards the close. Production is seasonally declining followed by decreasing auction quantities. Currently it is dry in Kenya, but currently there are no signs that a healthy raining season won’t come.
The Malawi auction is suffering under the later than normal arriving raining season. Crop intake is picking up. There is demand for PF1s and PD, which is currently a sellers’ market. Soon we should expect increasing auction quantities which might turn the market back into a buyers’ market again.
Buyers in Jakarta are back on full strength which resulted in a firm to dearer market. Colombo is still suffering under the political situation in the Middle East and Russia. Surprisingly Libya and Iraq provided good support to the market.
China is still starting up after New Years holiday, Vietnam doing the same after TET holiday. Kolkata showing an off season market with slow demand. Hopefully we can soon leave the off season in these areas behind us.
“Make tea, not war.” Monty Python