Week 42, 2014
Tea market report 13–17 October, 2014
The markets continue to show a high measure of uncertainty leading to a general sense of directionless. Mombasa was easier except for the medium and better PF1’s, whilst there was no auction in Limbe this week. Colombo displayed a most irregular pattern and demand there can only be described as patchy. Jakarta was irregularly lower and the North Indian centres, whilst firm to dearer for decent liquoring tea, tended lower for the remainder. South India bounded along at largely unchanged rates. In summary, a dull selection of auctions.
The weather remains a fundamental driver. Conditions in Kenya are about normal for the time of year with useful showers, west of the Rift in particular and crop intakes are rising in line with expectation. Malawi is very hot and dry as one would expect at this time of year. Crop is seasonally low. Sri Lanka reports a fine mix of sunshine and showers with a normal to good crop. The weather in Indonesia is still dryish but crop is healthy. Vietnam is in its last plucking cycle and the end of the season is near. China the same. There has been useful rain in Argentina but temperatures are a little low. North India has seen unexpected rain and a heavy flush is anticipated for the remainder of this month. In short, normal weather conditions in the tea growing countries.
Our outlook is largely unchanged. Supply is still ahead of demand and we sense the gap continues to widen slightly. There are no bullish factors out there at the moment so we expect the markets remain dull, floppy, uninspired and tending to ease further.
This is surely true:
“A compromise is an agreement whereby both parties get what neither of them wanted.”